‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, supplies of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In a financial hub, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Authority's View
Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the hostilities.
The relevant department says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.
Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of stockpiling.
An industry representative alleges price gouging.
"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
