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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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