Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.